The core trade-off
Fixed pricing locks in a rate for the full contract term. Your supplier absorbs market risk and charges a premium for it. You get budget certainty, but if the market drops, you're still paying the higher locked rate.
Indexed pricing moves with the wholesale market. You pay the actual cost of power — no risk premium — but your bill varies monthly. In most months, that works in your favor. In extreme months (polar vortex, heat waves, supply disruptions), it can hurt.
| Factor | Fixed | Indexed |
|---|---|---|
| Budget certainty | High — set rate for the full term | Low — varies monthly with market |
| Cost over time | Typically higher — includes risk premium | Typically lower — no premium, but spike exposure |
| Upside from market dips | None | Full |
| Best for | Tight margins, regulated entities, fixed budgets | Flexible budgets, organizations with advisory support |
Why the default choices often backfire
Buyers who default to fixed pricing pay a premium that, over multiple contract cycles, adds up significantly. Forward curves — the basis for fixed rates — include a risk margin, and realized spot prices come in below the forward curve more often than above it.
On the other hand, buyers who stay fully indexed without a plan are speculating. A single extreme price event can erase a full year of savings.
The hybrid approach
The most effective strategy sits in between:
- Hedge 50–70% at fixed rates. This covers your base — the portion of your spend that must be predictable. Hedge in layers over time rather than all at once to average out pricing.
- Leave 30–50% indexed. This is your opportunity position. In most months, spot prices will come in below the forward curve. In spike months, the damage is limited to a fraction of your load.
- Set trigger points. Define price levels where you'll hedge more aggressively or hold off. This replaces reactive decision-making with a disciplined process.
Example: 5 MW manufacturer in PJM
A facility with $2M in annual energy spend compared two approaches for their 2027 contract:
| Full Fixed Lock | Hybrid (60% Fixed / 40% Indexed) |
|---|---|
| Locked at $0.085/kWh reflecting elevated 2026 forwards | Hedged 60% across three tranches at a blended $0.076/kWh |
| Annual cost: ~$2.04M. No variability. | Remaining 40% indexed, averaging $0.068/kWh over the year |
| Market dropped to $0.070 — still paid $0.085. Overpayment: ~$360K | Blended rate: ~$0.073/kWh. Annual cost: ~$1.75M. Savings: ~$290K |
~$290K
annual savings on $2M energy spend — hybrid strategy vs full fixed lock, sample 5 MW PJM facility
The savings aren't from picking the right direction. They're from carrying enough flexibility that market dips actually reach your bottom line — and enough hedging that spike months don't blow up the budget.
Bottom Line
Fixed pricing isn't "safe" and indexed isn't "risky" — both carry trade-offs. The right answer for most buyers in 2026 is a disciplined blend: enough hedging to protect the budget, enough flexibility to benefit from market conditions. The mix depends on your load, your margins, and your tolerance for variability. The discipline of layered execution matters more than the percentage.
